Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa879…5852 other 259 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$23
14 days−$35
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$42
sports 24% −$23
politics 8% −$10
economics 6% −$7
culture 6% −$8
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)258 / 259
History coverage142d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $437 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $825 −$3 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $158 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 19 $251 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $165 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $319 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $126 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $674 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $523 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $427 −$2 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $458 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $519 −$2 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $120 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $209 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $71 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $277 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $195 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $142 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $283 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $202 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $262 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 1h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 2h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $52 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 7h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $52 11h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $52 13h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $52 14h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $52 15h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 17h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 19h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 27h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 29h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 33h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 34h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 36h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 37h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 39h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 41h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 42h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 43h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.63 · official $51.63 (match) · 1483 history records