Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa87a…cad9 world 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%28W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$1
14 days+$14
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$11
world 36% +$2
other 16% +$4
politics 8% −$1
finance 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.4% -10.8% 30% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -0.0% -9.5% 37% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 45 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 4% -9.7%
all 72 -0.8% -10.2% 39% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses28 / 44
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage327d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $97 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $88 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $9 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $23 −$1 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $330 +$4 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $97 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $131 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $122 −$4 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $62 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $139 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $75 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $98 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $34 +$3 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 -13%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $67 +$7 +11%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $84 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $76 +$2 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $86 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $82 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $85 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $77 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $164 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $382 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $76 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $77 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $78 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $166 −$3 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $82 +$1 +2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $90 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $85 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 27 $116 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $102 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $759 −$7 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $985 −$9 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $2 $0 -25%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $46 −$4 -8%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $3 +$1 +26%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 09 $239 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $217 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $205 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $9 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $97 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $97 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $9 20h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $79 20h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $88 23h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 28h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $12 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $13 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $21 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $16 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $64 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $35 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $97 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $98 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $97 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $9 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $44 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $43 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $15 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $64 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $7 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $88 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $97 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $99 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.88 · official $0.00 (match) · 303 history records