Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A8 0xa87a…88a9 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$57 (+25%) realized +$60 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$61
sports 13% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +62.0% +46.6% 100% 100% +46.6%
≤30d 1 +62.0% +46.6% 100% 100% +46.6%
≤90d 1 +62.0% +46.6% 100% 100% +46.6%
all 1 +62.0% +46.6% 100% 100% +46.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.6% 100% +46.6%
10% +32.6% 100% +32.6%
15% +19.8% 100% +19.8%
20% +8.0% 100% +8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 +$63 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $31 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $34 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.04 · official $121.04 (match) · 7 history records