Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa87b…968b sports 1518 markets active 10h ago coverage 324d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Covers last 323d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,058 (-17%) realized −$4,053 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%349W / 1155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$49
14 days+$13
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$2,292
other 22% −$979
crypto 8% −$536
politics 1% −$83
world 1% −$5
economics 0% −$63
culture 0% −$4
weather 0% −$17
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +22.7% +11.0% 29% 29% +10.0%
≤30d 96 -11.2% -19.7% 27% 27% -15.1%
≤90d 306 -12.0% -20.4% 24% 23% -25.4%
all 1504 -13.3% -21.5% 23% 23% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 23% -24.3%
10% -29.0% 22% -31.5%
15% -35.9% 22% -38.1%
20% -42.2% 22% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$13 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$4,053
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses349 / 1155
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1504 / 1518
History coverage324d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-53%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Arge Jun 17 $13 +$84 +627%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $7 +$15 +216%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 +$13 +158%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$5 -63%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$12 +152%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $5 +$27 +519%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$17 +276%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 −$5 -59%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 +$10 +158%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 +$20 +325%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 −$8 -50%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $7 +$12 +172%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 −$2 -39%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $7 −$3 -38%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $5 +$6 +124%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $6 −$4 -64%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $7 −$3 -38%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Curaçao vs. Aruba: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $5 +$9 +194%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $6 −$2 -36%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $4 +$8 +188%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $7 −$4 -56%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $5 −$3 -52%
Sagan Tosu vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $7 +$13 +180%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
FC Gifu vs. Gainare Tottori: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 9h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia ( BUY 5¢ $5 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $6 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $8 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $3 42h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Arge BUY 13¢ $13 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $7 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $8 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $8 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win BUY 10¢ $5 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 7¢ $12 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $6 2d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $3 3d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $8 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $5 3d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $6 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $6 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $21 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $15 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $6 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Sw BUY 12¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $6 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $6 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $7 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11 BUY 21¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.04 · official $23.04 (match) · 3473 history records