Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa884…2931 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$202 (-30%) realized −$187 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$207
7 days−$207
14 days−$213
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$246
crypto 20% +$18
sports 15% −$8
world 3% +$7
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -64.6% -68.0% 17% 17% -56.7%
≤30d 8 -56.2% -60.4% 25% 12% -56.6%
≤90d 8 -56.2% -60.4% 25% 12% -56.6%
all 14 -37.6% -43.6% 43% 14% -48.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 14% -48.6%
10% -49.0% 7% -53.5%
15% -53.9% 7% -58.0%
20% -58.4% 0% -62.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$31 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)14 / 22
History coverage118d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 94¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 22¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$17 +21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $10 −$6 -64%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump say "Rigged Election" on Truth Social this week? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 02 $27 −$11 -39%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $15 +$7 +47%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? Feb 28 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 24? Feb 23 $26 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $39 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $48 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $33 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $49 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $92 46h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $92 46h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 46h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 10d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $4 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $17 111d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $5 111d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $5 111d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL Yes $0 111d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL Yes $16 111d
Will Donald Trump say "Rigged Election" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 115d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY Yes $27 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 24? SELL No 99¢ $27 118d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 118d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 118d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 24? BUY No 95¢ $26 118d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 118d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? BUY No 96¢ $22 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 23? BUY No 93¢ $10 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.05 · official $132.05 (match) · 153 history records