Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa886…e656 crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$325 (-4%) realized −$325 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$17
14 days−$16
30 days−$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$6
other 33% −$4
sports 6% −$366
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -66.3% -69.5% 20% 16% -10.9%
≤30d 42 -41.8% -47.3% 36% 10% -13.4%
≤90d 42 -41.8% -47.3% 36% 10% -13.4%
all 42 -41.8% -47.3% 36% 10% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.3% 10% -13.4%
10% -52.4% 7% -21.7%
15% -57.0% 7% -29.2%
20% -61.2% 5% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$325
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage26d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $37 −$36 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $34 +$25 +72%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $17 −$17 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $12 +$13 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $46 +$9 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $23 +$9 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $465 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $485 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $464 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $297 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $455 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $485 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $531 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $537 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $501 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $560 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $486 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $512 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $524 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $171 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $37 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up $0 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up $0 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down $0 22h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $19 24h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $34 41h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $17 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down $0 47h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up $0 47h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up $0 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up $0 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 48¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up $0 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up $0 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down $0 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down $0 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down $0 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $19 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 54¢ $20 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $27 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up $0 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $23 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up $0 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down $0 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down $0 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $465 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $484 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $485 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $464 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $297 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records