Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa887…111e crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$69 (-22%) realized −$70 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%30W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day50.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$27
other 22% −$44
sports 11% +$8
tech 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -20.7% -28.2% 34% 32% -31.2%
≤30d 87 -20.7% -28.2% 34% 32% -31.2%
≤90d 87 -20.7% -28.2% 34% 32% -31.2%
all 87 -20.7% -28.2% 34% 32% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 32% -31.2%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 30% -37.8%
15% -41.4% 25% -43.8%
20% -47.1% 21% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses30 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 25¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +151%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$7 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +159%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +176%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -82%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -84%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +133%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +331%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -27%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$19 -76%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -56%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -55%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -92%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +218%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -40%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$8 +261%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $3 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $3 44m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $5 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 52m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $4 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.25 · official $2.49 (match) · 266 history records