Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa887…ef5f crypto 345 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1783 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$705 (+1%) realized +$873 · open −$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%180W / 626L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day1783.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1783 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-60.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 806 -56.4% -60.5% 22% 20% -22.0%
≤30d 806 -56.4% -60.5% 22% 20% -22.0%
≤90d 806 -56.4% -60.5% 22% 20% -22.0%
all 806 -56.4% -60.5% 22% 20% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1783.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.5% 20% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -64.3% 15% -29.5%
15% -67.8% 12% -36.3%
20% -70.9% 10% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late -96% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$34 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$873
Unrealized−$168
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses180 / 626
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)806 / 345
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$155
Trades / day1783.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 806 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 64¢ 90¢ $28 $40 +$12 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 59¢ 10¢ $200 $32 −$168 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $0 +$1 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $81 −$81 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $41 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $133 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $83 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $39 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.66 · official $266.75 · 3500 history records