Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A8 0xa88b…976c crypto 601 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,152 (+0%) realized +$2,165 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate92%518W / 43L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$1,792per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3,151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$95
14 days−$70
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$1,161
other 4% +$932
weather 2% +$55
sports 0% −$98
tech 0% +$44
world 0% +$6
economics 0% +$2
politics 0% −$35
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -6.5% -15.4% 85% 18% -10.4%
≤30d 105 -4.3% -13.5% 90% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 265 -1.2% -10.6% 85% 11% -8.9%
all 561 -0.2% -9.7% 92% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 7% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 5% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 4% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,997) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.46 per $1 lost it wins $7.46
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$3,151
Realized+$2,165
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses518 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions35
Markets (closed)561 / 601
History coverage193d
Avg bet$1,792
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 561 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 99¢ 99¢ $495 $493 −$1 (-0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 93¢ 83¢ $372 $331 −$41 (-11%)
Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? No 100¢ 99¢ $299 $297 −$2 (-1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+1%)
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $187 $191 +$4 (+2%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $179 $180 +$1 (+0%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $157 $166 +$9 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $134 $140 +$6 (+5%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 95¢ $87 $95 +$8 (+9%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $71 $72 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $69 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $44 $48 +$4 (+9%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 86¢ $47 $43 −$4 (-8%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 95¢ 93¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 92¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$2 +48%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $428 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 +$2 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 10? Jun 10 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 09 $1,990 +$4 +0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,043 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $74 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY England 99¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 1h
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $3 1h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $55 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 61¢ $10 27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $18 27h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $19 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $18 27h
Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 100¢ $299 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $300 27h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $29 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 41¢ $15 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $168 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $635 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,151.18 · official $3,161.18 (match) · 1805 history records