Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa88b…528b crypto 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$55 (+9%) realized +$59 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%66W / 69L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$10
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$54
sports 1% −$4
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -3.2% -12.4% 52% 52% -6.3%
≤30d 135 -6.9% -15.7% 49% 49% -2.0%
≤90d 135 -6.9% -15.7% 49% 49% -2.0%
all 135 -6.9% -15.7% 49% 49% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 49% -2.0%
10% -23.8% 49% -11.4%
15% -31.2% 48% -20.0%
20% -37.9% 47% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses66 / 69
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage10d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 62¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$8 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$4 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$8 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$32 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$16 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 0¢ $0 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.84 · official $4.84 (match) · 269 history records