Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:52:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa88d…a183 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (114 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$13 (+4%) realized +$22 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day114.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$18
other 14% −$23
sports 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (114 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -19.6% -27.2% 49% 41% -17.2%
≤30d 41 -19.6% -27.2% 49% 41% -17.2%
≤90d 41 -19.6% -27.2% 49% 41% -17.2%
all 41 -19.6% -27.2% 49% 41% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 41% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 29% -25.1%
15% -40.6% 22% -32.3%
20% -46.4% 17% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day114.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 0¢ 44¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 29¢ 8¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$13 -70%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$9 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$15 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $36 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $17 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$4 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$1 +17%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 33m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 36m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 37m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 42¢ $17 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $16 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.61 · official $10.27 (match) · 146 history records