trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? | Jun 12 | $49 | −$49 | -100% |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on | Jun 12 | $150 | −$150 | -100% |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April | Jun 12 | $90 | −$90 | -100% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 12 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April | Jun 12 | $9 | −$80 | -871% |
| Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 12 | $23 | −$49 | -213% |
| Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 12 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 | Jun 10 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 10 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | Jun 09 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Jun 08 | $3 | +$1 | +20% |
| Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 07 | $172 | +$20 | +12% |
| Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 06 | $100 | −$24 | -24% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 04 | $100 | −$4 | -4% |
| Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 03 | $100 | −$76 | -76% |
| Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 03 | $162 | −$150 | -93% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me | Jun 02 | $100 | +$25 | +25% |
| Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? | May 30 | $100 | −$4 | -4% |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju | May 30 | $100 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | May 27 | $4 | +$1 | +25% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 25 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me | May 25 | $34 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | May 22 | $100 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | May 21 | $200 | −$165 | -83% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | -49.3% | -54.1% | 17% | 17% | -55.7% |
| ≤30d | 24 | -39.7% | -45.4% | 17% | 17% | -50.1% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -39.7% | -45.4% | 17% | 17% | -50.1% |
| all | 24 | -39.7% | -45.4% | 17% | 17% | -50.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -45.4% | 17% | -50.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -50.6% | 8% | -54.8% |
| 15% | -55.4% | 0% | -59.2% |
| 20% | -59.8% | 0% | -63.2% |