Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa88f…1096
weather · 79 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
−$1,342 -32%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,342 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$1,342
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses21 / 56
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage153d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$64
14 days−$145
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13? No 35¢ 0¢ $399 $0 −$399 (-100%)
US government shutdown Saturday? No 56¢ 0¢ $218 $0 −$218 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 9? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-18? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $459 $0 −$459 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Nets Grizzlies 53¢ 0¢ $424 $0 −$424 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Lynn Vision 38¢ 0¢ $136 $0 −$136 (-100%)
Patriots vs. Broncos Broncos 32¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Wizards Bucks 55¢ 0¢ $165 $0 −$165 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? No 41¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Chargers vs. Patriots Chargers 36¢ 0¢ $209 $0 −$209 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Republican Party win the NY-11 House seat? Jun 12 $20 −$12 -61%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$5 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $44 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 -43%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $12 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $25 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $21 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$6 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 47% −$288
other 20% −$434
weather 15% −$52
world 12% −$345
politics 6% −$230
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party win the NY-11 House seat? SELL No 13¢ $8 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? SELL No 13¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 77¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 78¢ $4 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? SELL No 19¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY No 19¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 32¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 32¢ $14 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 78¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 78¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL Yes 22¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL Yes 24¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 24¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 32¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 87¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 89¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $44 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 67¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? SELL No 59¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -11.9% -20.3% 22% 3% -18.4%
≤30d 62 -12.4% -20.8% 23% 5% -24.0%
≤90d 62 -12.4% -20.8% 23% 5% -24.0%
all 77 -12.7% -21.0% 27% 13% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 13% -38.4%
10% -28.5% 13% -44.3%
15% -35.4% 13% -49.7%
20% -41.8% 8% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.75 · official $8.75 (match) · 213 history records