Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:17:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa894…9095 other 27 markets active 8h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$2
other 33% −$1
finance 9% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% $0
politics 3% +$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.0% -8.7% 75% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 11 -8.5% -17.3% 55% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 11 -8.5% -17.3% 55% 0% -8.8%
all 27 -15.7% -23.7% 48% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 4% -9.3%
10% -31.0% 4% -18.0%
15% -37.7% 4% -25.9%
20% -43.8% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage460d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $73 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $71 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $85 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $35 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $42 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $6 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 22 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $3 $0 -8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? Jun 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Jun 20 $12 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $3 +$1 +55%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 08 $9 −$1 -10%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 30 $13 $0 +1%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $48 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $48 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $16 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $19 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $34 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $47 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $3 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $4 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $4 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $11 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $47 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $47 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $1 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $1 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records