Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:35:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa894…6d39 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$209 (-22%) realized −$234 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$280
sports 14% +$89
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -38.6% -44.5% 31% 31% -32.2%
≤30d 26 -38.6% -44.5% 31% 31% -32.2%
≤90d 26 -38.6% -44.5% 31% 31% -32.2%
all 26 -38.6% -44.5% 31% 31% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.5% 31% -32.2%
10% -49.8% 23% -38.7%
15% -54.6% 15% -44.6%
20% -59.1% 15% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage3d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 81¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$35 +70%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $68 +$21 +30%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -98%
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $44 −$43 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $23 −$2 -10%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $17 −$6 -33%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $177 −$174 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 +$7 +18%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$3 -11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 $0 -1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $70 −$69 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 +$28 +54%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $71 +$70 +99%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$9 -55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $13 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 96¢ $33 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 30h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 30h
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $44 45h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 45h
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $5 47h
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $5 47h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 47h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 47h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $41 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $92 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 48¢ $27 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 89¢ $40 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.45 · official $75.46 (match) · 56 history records