Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa894…2830 sports 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-4%) realized −$123 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%75W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$209
14 days−$154
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$170
other 24% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -15.2% -23.2% 54% 37% -17.5%
≤30d 139 -15.1% -23.2% 54% 39% -15.0%
≤90d 139 -15.1% -23.2% 54% 39% -15.0%
all 139 -15.1% -23.2% 54% 39% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 39% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 30% -23.1%
15% -37.2% 26% -30.5%
20% -43.4% 22% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$123
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses75 / 64
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions8
Markets (closed)139 / 147
History coverage9d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 +$36 +70%
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 28 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $25 +$4 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $35 +$14 +39%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 27 $10 +$3 +26%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $1 $0 +10%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $13 +$8 +67%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $16 +$4 +27%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $4 $0 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9 +$8 +85%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $3 $0 +1%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $16 −$4 -28%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $3 $0 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jun 24 $7 +$10 +156%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Veronika Podrez Jun 24 $4 +$1 +26%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter Jun 24 $5 +$3 +60%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Harold Mayot Jun 24 $3 +$2 +76%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 24 $10 +$2 +24%
Set Handicap: Nardi (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $13 +$7 +50%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $10 $0 -5%
Valorant: ARETE vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $25 −$9 -37%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $10 +$7 +65%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Grabher vs Mariam Bolkvadze Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Ku (-1.5) vs Kostovic (+1.5) Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Urhobo (-1.5) vs Hontama (+1.5) Jun 23 $8 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $7 −$2 -22%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet Jun 23 $1 $0 +14%
Set Handicap: Valdmannova (-1.5) vs Gorgodze (+1.5) Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkae Jun 23 $25 +$16 +64%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 18h
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 18h
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 18h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 18h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 18h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 18h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le SELL Paris Gentle Mates 63¢ $47 18h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 66¢ $51 18h
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 38¢ $25 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 40h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 63¢ $10 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 44h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Misa Esports 79¢ $10 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 44h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 4d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 91¢ $1 4d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 71¢ $2 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 37¢ $18 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $2 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.86 · official $273.87 (match) · 353 history records