Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa895…faac
weather · 347 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$11,592 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17,206 · open −$5,614
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,647
Realized+$17,206
Unrealized−$5,614
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses189 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)344 / 347
History coverage76d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day40.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 344 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,183
7 days+$4,464
14 days+$9,452
30 days+$11,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $5,726 $11,343 +$5,617 (+98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? No 95¢ 96¢ $182 $185 +$3 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $5,726 $109 −$5,617 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $83 +$24 +29%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 13 $22 −$14 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $244 +$41 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $86 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $54 +$1,314 +2450%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $960 +$1,817 +189%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $802 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 +$1 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $473 +$177 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 10? Jun 10 $187 +$3 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +173%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $924 +$1,033 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on June Jun 07 $609 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $435 +$63 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $475 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $0 $0 +60%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $226 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$9 -90%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 +$690 +7043%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $95 +$91 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $86 +$37 +43%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 04 $0 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $51 +$492 +960%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 04 $50 −$1 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 4? Jun 03 $0 +$5 +1210%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $674 +$7 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? Jun 03 $118 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 −$2 -22%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 2? Jun 03 $2 $0 -12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 2? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 2? Jun 03 $0 $0 -94%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $259 +$25 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 68% −$5,637
weather 29% +$17,265
finance 2% +$35
other 1% −$70
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $47 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $132 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $8 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 95¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $83 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 90¢ $23 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 88¢ $22 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $244 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $35 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $212 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $32 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 41h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? SELL No 1¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $16 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+87.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +83.6% +66.1% 63% 40% +60.8%
≤30d 93 +169.9% +144.2% 57% 41% +83.5%
≤90d 344 +107.5% +87.8% 55% 35% +17.0%
all 344 +107.5% +87.8% 55% 35% +17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +87.8% 35% +17.0%
10% ← realistic here +69.8% 31% +5.8%
15% +53.4% 26% -4.4%
20% +38.3% 24% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,647.07 · official $11,647.07 (match) · 3500 history records