Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:23:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A8 0xa89b…1a93 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 41L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$10
other 34% −$7
world 8% −$2
economics 6% $0
culture 6% −$2
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 41 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 41 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$954) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage89d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $1,245 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro Jun 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,348 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,273 −$3 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jun 13 $1,259 −$3 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic o Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Twins win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,288 −$2 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $924 −$2 -0%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? May 12 $72 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $962 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 11 $956 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $904 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $957 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 09 $885 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $211 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Apr 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 02 $163 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $171 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 47m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $50 57m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $46 10d
Will Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? SELL No 99¢ $29 10d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $16 10d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $14 10d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,243 10d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $16 10d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,214 10d
Will Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? BUY No 99¢ $15 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $946 10d
Will Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? BUY No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $357 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,305 10d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro SELL No 100¢ $67 11d
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 11d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro BUY No 100¢ $21 11d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro BUY No 100¢ $24 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records