Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa89e…431d
crypto · 1210 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,830 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,830 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$2,830
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses514 / 694
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1208 / 1210
History coverage52d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day50.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 2 History 1208 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$77
14 days−$161
30 days−$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$6 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 68% −$547
other 30% −$2,169
sports 2% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 -9.3% -18.0% 44% 44% -16.6%
≤30d 777 -7.5% -16.3% 43% 43% -14.5%
≤90d 1208 -6.3% -15.2% 43% 41% -28.4%
all 1208 -6.3% -15.2% 43% 41% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 41% -28.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 40% -35.3%
15% -30.7% 38% -41.5%
20% -37.5% 37% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $6.00 (match) · 3500 history records