trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$9 | +187% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 12 | $51 | +$3 | +6% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 12 | $57 | +$1 | +1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 11 | $10 | +$5 | +46% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | Jun 11 | $38 | +$4 | +10% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 08 | $126 | −$16 | -12% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 22? | Jun 07 | $9 | +$5 | +54% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 07 | $76 | −$70 | -92% |
| Iran closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 07 | $14 | +$16 | +114% |
| Iran closes its airspace by July 15? | Jun 07 | $63 | −$33 | -52% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 07 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $21 | −$10 | -48% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? | Jun 06 | $7 | −$3 | -48% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 14 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 50% | 29% | -23.1% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 50% | 29% | -23.1% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 50% | 29% | -23.1% |
| all | 14 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 50% | 29% | -23.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -12.0% | 29% | -23.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -20.5% | 29% | -30.4% |
| 15% | -28.1% | 29% | -37.2% |
| 20% | -35.2% | 21% | -43.3% |