Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8a1…2974 sports 516 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 196d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$145,047 (-30%) realized −$144,887 · open −$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%163W / 352L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$949per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$3,054est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,759
7 days−$11,759
14 days−$12,017
30 days−$15,321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$113,754
crypto 18% −$22,112
other 9% −$18,753
world 1% −$3,240
economics 0% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -58.8% -62.8% 22% 22% -48.5%
≤30d 44 -54.8% -59.1% 20% 20% -48.7%
≤90d 149 -24.6% -31.8% 28% 28% -50.1%
all 515 -19.2% -26.9% 32% 31% -39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 31% -39.0%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 31% -44.8%
15% -40.3% 30% -50.2%
20% -46.1% 29% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$650) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$898 vs −$864 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$144,887
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses163 / 352
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$3,054
Open positions1
Markets (closed)515 / 516
History coverage196d ⚠
Avg bet$949
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 25¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $287 −$281 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3,183 +$1,676 +53%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $90 −$88 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,049 −$1,026 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,312 −$3,259 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $120 −$117 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$48 +79%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $975 −$952 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6,700 −$6,684 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $403 +$168 +42%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $838 −$559 -67%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,724 −$1,694 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $320 −$315 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,150 +$5,565 +134%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,325 −$1,300 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $194 −$190 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,593 −$2,712 -59%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $21 −$21 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $115 −$10 -9%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $78 −$77 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $86 +$105 +122%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $69 −$67 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $19 +$50 +255%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $17 −$17 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 31 $612 −$600 -98%
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,107 −$1,087 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1,492 +$1,256 +84%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 30 $299 −$294 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $399 +$512 +128%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $309 −$303 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2,237 −$1,641 -73%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 26 $42 −$42 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 22 $24 −$24 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 May 19 $13 +$17 +130%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 09 $92 −$90 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $50 −$49 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 07 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $229 −$224 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) Apr 28 $122 +$128 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 24¢ $31 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 20¢ $19 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 28¢ $50 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 24¢ $48 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 37¢ $139 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 1¢ $21 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 44¢ $822 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 25¢ $90 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $661 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $49 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $98 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 25¢ $164 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2,354 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 6¢ $41 13h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $27 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 27¢ $1,022 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 21¢ $60 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 30¢ $46 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $94 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 43¢ $100 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 49¢ $90 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 42¢ $168 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 47¢ $2,337 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 47¢ $418 14h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $120 16h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $109 16h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $61 16h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 20¢ $975 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 4¢ $20 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 28¢ $31 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.32 (match) · 3500 history records