Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:42:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8a5…122b sports 136 markets active 3h ago coverage 590d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 589d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$180,294 (+13%) realized +$180,275 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%71W / 64L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$9,957per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$711est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19,898
7 days+$19,898
14 days+$14,187
30 days+$14,187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$3,381
sports 36% +$127,770
politics 12% +$39,953
crypto 5% +$67,456
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -18.9% -26.6% 44% 22% -1.8%
≤30d 10 -27.0% -33.9% 40% 20% -4.2%
≤90d 36 -12.0% -20.4% 42% 36% -13.8%
all 135 +0.1% -9.4% 53% 47% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 47% +6.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 44% -3.5%
15% -26.0% 36% -12.8%
20% -33.2% 27% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$9,333) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8,864 vs −$6,106 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized+$180,275
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses71 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$711
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage590d ⚠
Avg bet$9,957
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $332 $351 +$19 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,007 +$1,143 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $47,000 +$1,203 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28,400 −$28,400 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18,600 −$152 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $72,400 +$67,456 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,436 +$10 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6,832 −$6,832 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3,162 −$3,162 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51,343 −$11,370 -22%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $5,801 −$5,710 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $14,418 +$12,282 +85%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $34,239 +$20,363 +60%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $5,107 +$9,623 +188%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $2,862 +$3,260 +114%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26? Apr 28 $3,471 +$8,243 +238%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $3,633 −$3,558 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5,945 −$5,856 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $3,742 −$3,647 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $2,520 −$2,520 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $310 −$310 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $6,566 −$6,566 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $4,069 −$4,045 -99%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $8,214 +$5,034 +61%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $9,427 +$5,076 +54%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $14,008 +$5,168 +37%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Mar 22 $9,333 −$9,333 -100%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Mar 22 $2,633 −$2,633 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $3,480 +$11,020 +317%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $5,023 −$5,023 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $9,207 −$9,207 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $7,481 +$10,765 +144%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $17,089 +$6,980 +41%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1,359 −$1,359 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $49,310 −$49,310 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Hawks Mar 18 $16,898 −$16,898 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $14,974 −$14,974 -100%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Mar 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 17 $42,858 +$75,067 +175%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $11,033 +$5,941 +54%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $11,578 +$11,578 +100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Mar 15 $696 −$696 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $5,338 −$5,338 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $5,084 −$5,084 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $8,462 −$8,462 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $12,770 −$12,770 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Mar 09 $6,469 +$2,393 +37%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Feb 12 $2,554 −$2,554 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Feb 09 $15,434 −$15,434 -100%
Nets vs. Jazz Jan 31 $6,020 −$6,020 -100%
Lakers vs. Wizards Jan 30 $3,142 −$3,142 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 49¢ $9,948 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 48¢ $2,317 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 48¢ $3,521 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 48¢ $1,070 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 48¢ $6,472 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 48¢ $583 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 48¢ $836 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 48¢ $2,435 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 48¢ $1,242 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 48¢ $5 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 48¢ $1 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $69 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $4 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $30 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $41 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $480 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $6 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $35 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $33 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $44 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $18 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $6 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $1 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $4 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $44 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $1 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $4 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $174 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $9 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $738 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.61 · official $350.61 (match) · 3500 history records