Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8a8…54ab world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%16W / 23L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$4
other 33% $0
finance 3% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
weather 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.7% -7.1% 67% 22% -8.5%
≤30d 21 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 10% -9.1%
≤90d 21 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 10% -9.1%
all 39 -2.0% -11.3% 41% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 5% -9.2%
10% -19.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses16 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage475d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 74¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $94 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $61 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $47 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $4 $0 +11%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $31 +$3 +11%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $39 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $84 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $44 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $82 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $16 $0 -1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $12 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 16 $13 $0 -4%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 12 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on March 8? Mar 11 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $47 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $5 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $38 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $17 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $26 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $47 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $47 17h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 30h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $32 33h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 43h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 44h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $9 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $15 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $3 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $4 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $47 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $47 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $5 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.56 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records