Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8aa…73e8 other 49 markets active 5d ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$33 (-18%) realized −$32 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$14
politics 12% −$3
crypto 12% −$8
tech 12% −$4
world 11% +$2
weather 7% −$5
culture 3% −$1
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +47.5% +33.5% 100% 100% +48.6%
≤90d 26 -14.6% -22.8% 38% 38% -25.8%
all 35 -22.9% -30.2% 31% 31% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 31% -35.3%
10% -36.9% 26% -41.5%
15% -43.0% 20% -47.1%
20% -48.6% 20% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)35 / 49
History coverage97d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 53¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 44¢ 32¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-44%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Yes $0 $1 +$0 (+119%)
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1 $0 +17%
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Ser May 25 $4 +$3 +78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $1 −$1 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? Apr 30 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -73%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 22 $4 −$1 -14%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? Apr 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 03 $6 −$3 -43%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 01 $6 +$4 +56%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 31 $3 +$2 +52%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Mar 27 $2 $0 -7%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Mar 26 $9 −$3 -27%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 23 $6 −$3 -46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on March 13? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during Women's History Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 18? Mar 17 $4 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 18? Mar 17 $5 −$1 -13%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 15 $5 −$2 -41%
Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars? Mar 15 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Trump say "Clean coal" or "Beautiful coal" during Kentucky visit? Mar 12 $8 +$7 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 National League Championship Ser SELL Yes $2 6d
Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 National League Championship Ser SELL Yes $2 7d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 21d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 21d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 21d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 21d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 21d
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Ser SELL Yes $0 23d
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Ser SELL Yes $1 27d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Vitality 79¢ $1 32d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 32d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 32d
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Ser SELL Yes $1 33d
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Ser SELL Yes $2 33d
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Ser SELL Yes $2 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $6 35d
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? SELL Yes $0 48d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 49d
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 49d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 56d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $4 56d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $4 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.64 · official $48.01 (match) · 133 history records