Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A8 0xa8af…82cc crypto 853 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-5%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%482W / 371L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$14
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$90
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -14.2% -22.3% 50% 29% -22.5%
≤30d 226 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 44% -15.1%
≤90d 853 -5.6% -14.6% 57% 43% -15.9%
all 853 -5.6% -14.6% 57% 43% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 43% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 35% -23.9%
15% -30.2% 29% -31.3%
20% -37.1% 23% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses482 / 371
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)853 / 853
History coverage49d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 853 Trades
no open positions (98 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1929 history records