Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8b1…5b9b politics 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% $0
politics 24% −$3
other 24% +$3
sports 20% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 28 +0.7% -8.8% 25% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 4% -9.7%
10% -17.6% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 4% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage330d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $29 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference? Aug 10 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Aug 10 $57 $0 +1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 05 $67 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 01 $6 $0 -2%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jul 30 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 29 $44 −$3 -6%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the July meeting? Jul 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $27 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $29 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $29 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $27 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $8 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $3 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $10 14d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 311d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $5 316d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $48 316d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 316d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $5 316d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $48 316d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $53 317d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 317d
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL No 100¢ $5 317d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $52 317d
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the BUY No 99¢ $5 322d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $6 322d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $6 322d
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $6 322d
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $6 322d
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $6 322d
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $6 325d
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? SELL No 92¢ $6 325d
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? BUY No 92¢ $6 325d
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? SELL No 70¢ $6 325d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.54 · official $26.54 (match) · 82 history records