trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $101 | +$65 | +65% |
| Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? | Jun 05 | $3,126 | +$164 | +5% |
| Singapore vs. China PR: Both Teams to Score | Jun 05 | $208 | −$206 | -99% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $8,646,258 | +$33,558 | +0% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | Jun 02 | $155,515 | +$5,874 | +4% |
| Trump out as President by May 31? | Jun 01 | $423,317 | +$4,756 | +1% |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | May 31 | $3,450 | −$3,449 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 19 | $94,923 | +$199 | +0% |
| Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 19 | $27,452 | +$51 | +0% |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 19 | $33,781 | +$301 | +1% |
| Will J.D. Vance attend Trump’s Xi summit? | May 15 | $50,498 | +$613 | +1% |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | May 14 | $215,725 | +$6,497 | +3% |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | May 14 | $297,977 | +$759,423 | +255% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | May 14 | $82,222 | +$247 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | May 09 | $554,999 | +$556 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +64.7% | +49.0% | 100% | 100% | +49.0% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -11.1% | -19.6% | 82% | 9% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +9.1% | -1.3% | 87% | 13% | -2.6% |
| all | 15 | +9.1% | -1.3% | 87% | 13% | -2.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -1.3% | 13% | -2.6% |
| 10% | -10.8% | 13% | -11.9% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -19.4% | 13% | -20.4% |
| 20% | -27.3% | 13% | -28.2% |