Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8b2…5f00 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$253 (+9%) realized +$251 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate97%31W / 1L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$215
14 days+$266
30 days+$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$234
world 6% +$10
weather 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +13.2% +2.5% 100% 63% +1.8%
≤30d 28 +13.4% +2.6% 100% 64% +1.8%
≤90d 31 +9.4% -1.0% 97% 61% +0.6%
all 32 +9.2% -1.2% 97% 59% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 59% +0.2%
10% -10.7% 12% -9.4%
15% -19.3% 0% -18.1%
20% -27.2% 0% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$25 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.64 per $1 lost it wins $10.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$455
Realized+$251
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses31 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage117d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 98¢ 99¢ $360 $363 +$3 (+1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 71¢ 68¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 85¢ 86¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $130 +$18 +14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $80 +$15 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$8 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $117 +$20 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $70 +$14 +20%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $90 +$8 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$16 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $55 +$5 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 +$11 +20%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 +$4 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $52 +$6 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 +$8 +17%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $45 +$11 +24%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $74 +$4 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$9 +31%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $41 −$25 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 22? Apr 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 22? Apr 25 $10 +$2 +16%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $98 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 100¢ $160 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $30 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $45 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $48 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $200 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $80 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $60 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $100 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $150 38h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $16 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $62 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $100 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $101 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $50 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $70 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $100 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $90 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $100 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $101 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $55 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $55 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $55 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $100 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $100 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $52 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $45 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $55 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $45 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $454.72 · official $454.72 (match) · 74 history records