Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8b3…9bc4 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$150 (-10%) realized −$127 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$125
14 days−$146
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$115
weather 27% −$106
sports 11% +$138
politics 11% −$46
world 5% −$11
crypto 3% −$29
economics 1% −$9
culture 1% +$4
tech 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.9% -7.8% 41% 41% -20.2%
≤30d 40 -5.8% -14.8% 38% 38% -21.8%
≤90d 40 -5.8% -14.8% 38% 38% -21.8%
all 40 -5.8% -14.8% 38% 38% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 38% -21.8%
10% -22.9% 32% -29.3%
15% -30.4% 32% -36.1%
20% -37.2% 22% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$23 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$422
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions19
Markets (closed)40 / 59
History coverage7d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 25¢ 19¢ $71 $53 −$18 (-25%)
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $46 $51 +$5 (+10%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $39 $44 +$5 (+12%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $42 $40 −$1 (-3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $21 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 57¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $12 $15 +$2 (+19%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? No 69¢ 62¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of June 15 2026? No 59¢ 47¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? No 68¢ 74¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? No 70¢ 68¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 1¢ 0¢ $14 $6 −$9 (-61%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$7 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$5 -58%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$2 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $92 −$72 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 17 $14 +$5 +35%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $30 −$23 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$7 -80%
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 17 $24 −$19 -81%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 17 $15 −$12 -79%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $43 −$6 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $12 $0 -1%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 16 $29 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $64 +$9 +14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 +$31 +101%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $40 +$49 +124%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $9 +$4 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $68 −$16 -23%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +44%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $64 −$62 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$80 +262%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $34 +$88 +262%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $67 −$65 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $65 −$63 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$34 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$16 +105%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $8 +$4 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$17 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 12 $34 −$33 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$69 +229%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 12 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? Jun 11 $25 −$24 -95%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 70¢ $9 31m
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of June 15 BUY No 59¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $21 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 30¢ $4 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 44¢ $35 8h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 68¢ $11 8h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 59¢ $16 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $14 11h
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 35¢ $47 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $17 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? SELL No 87¢ $19 14h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? BUY No 69¢ $14 15h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL No 12¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 15¢ $2 15h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 13¢ $5 15h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $12 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $22 18h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 38¢ $40 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $12 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 18h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $30 19h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $37 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $42 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 72¢ $12 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $12 24h
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 55¢ $27 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $9 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $9 27h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $14 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $421.51 · official $421.51 (match) · 87 history records