Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8b5…b138 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% $0
other 36% $0
crypto 8% −$3
politics 5% −$1
sports 3% +$3
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -1.6% -11.0% 36% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 7% -9.5%
all 42 -5.0% -14.1% 50% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 5% -9.7%
10% -22.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage470d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $47 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 -7%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $70 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $21 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $5 −$1 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $28 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $43 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $90 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $7 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Dec 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $6 $0 +4%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $8 $0 +4%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 24 $1 $0 -27%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 23 $6 −$1 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Apr 25? Apr 23 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 30 $13 $0 +1%
US military action against Iran before April? Mar 27 $13 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 24 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Mar 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $12 +$3 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $47 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $47 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $47 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $46 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $28 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $17 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $19 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $37 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $46 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $46 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $29 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $21 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $21 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $21 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $21 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $21 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $2 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $6 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $7 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records