Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8b7…2e52 crypto 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-2%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate55%60W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day43.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$90
world 5% −$13
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -17.4% -25.2% 55% 31% -13.9%
≤30d 110 -17.4% -25.2% 55% 31% -13.9%
≤90d 110 -17.4% -25.2% 55% 31% -13.9%
all 110 -17.4% -25.2% 55% 31% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 31% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 24% -22.2%
15% -38.9% 21% -29.7%
20% -44.9% 15% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses60 / 50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage6d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day43.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $96 −$46 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $75 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$34 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $105 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$6 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$23 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$9 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $50 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $45 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $46 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $40 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $41 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $41 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $27 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 288 history records