Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8b7…ee3c sports 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (318 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$11,702 (-6%) realized −$11,016 · open −$686
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate57%90W / 69L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$721per market
Trades / day318.0pace
Fees−$1,481est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$71,467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$1,419
other 36% −$1,343
economics 4% −$215
world 4% +$1,416
politics 3% +$1,768
crypto 1% +$1,263
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (318 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 +29.8% +17.4% 56% 35% -8.6%
≤30d 159 +30.2% +17.8% 57% 36% -8.3%
≤90d 159 +30.2% +17.8% 57% 36% -8.3%
all 159 +30.2% +17.8% 57% 36% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover318.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.8% 36% -8.3%
10% +6.6% 26% -17.1%
15% ← realistic here -3.7% 19% -25.1%
20% -13.2% 14% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$1,262) neutral
Persistence
early +64% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$339 vs −$443 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$71,467
Realized−$11,016
Unrealized−$686
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses90 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,481
Open positions230
Markets (closed)159 / 268
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$721
Trades / day318.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 230 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $10,912 $13,422 +$2,510 (+23%)
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $5,605 $5,690 +$84 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 85¢ 81¢ $4,565 $4,402 −$163 (-4%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 46¢ 42¢ $3,372 $3,086 −$286 (-8%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $2,149 $2,162 +$13 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? No 93¢ 100¢ $1,576 $1,695 +$119 (+8%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 42¢ 42¢ $1,635 $1,625 −$9 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 91¢ 78¢ $1,730 $1,488 −$243 (-14%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 66¢ 76¢ $1,265 $1,468 +$202 (+16%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,390 $1,388 −$1 (-0%)
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? No 80¢ 100¢ $1,017 $1,277 +$261 (+26%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 51¢ 44¢ $1,504 $1,272 −$232 (-15%)
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,221 $1,221 −$1 (-0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,174 $1,170 −$4 (-0%)
Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027? No 94¢ 93¢ $1,178 $1,159 −$19 (-2%)
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $827 $822 −$5 (-1%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $759 $759 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $759 $759 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $751 $752 +$1 (+0%)
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $724 $724 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No 79¢ 72¢ $711 $652 −$60 (-8%)
Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $606 $609 +$3 (+1%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $595 $596 +$0 (+0%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $559 $559 −$1 (-0%)
Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $506 $522 +$15 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $948 +$732 +77%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 18 $239 +$166 +70%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $671 +$73 +11%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $665 −$26 -4%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 18 $855 −$269 -32%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 18 $803 −$320 -40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $504 −$504 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $770 +$330 +43%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $828 +$372 +45%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $840 +$24 +3%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 17 $185 −$185 -100%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $11 +$3 +25%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,188 +$12 +1%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $1,049 −$147 -14%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1,352 −$44 -3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $979 +$121 +12%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $2,092 +$293 +14%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $891 +$209 +24%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $664 +$11 +2%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $699 +$9 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1,731 +$96 +6%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $936 +$264 +28%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $1,398 +$300 +21%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,936 −$22 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,560 −$36 -2%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $710 +$86 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1,008 +$27 +3%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 17 $1,364 +$261 +19%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,032 $0 -0%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $254 −$120 -47%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $293 +$15 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,131 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,341 −$41 -2%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 16 $283 −$283 -100%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 16 $789 −$400 -51%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $659 −$413 -63%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $737 −$737 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,150 −$262 -23%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $180 −$180 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,584 −$1,584 -100%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $210 +$490 +233%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $960 +$240 +25%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $593 +$366 +62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $456 +$744 +163%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $912 +$1,488 +163%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,288 +$440 +34%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $594 +$6 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $2,034 +$181 +9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $540 +$12 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $28 12m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 13m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19m
Will Mexico be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W BUY No 91¢ $61 28m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $69 33m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $66 33m
Will Curaçao be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY No 95¢ $7 52m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 55m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 59m
Will Cape Verde be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 20 BUY No 80¢ $110 1h
Will Spain be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wo BUY Yes 4¢ $42 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $66 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $73 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $105 2h
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY No 26¢ $4 2h
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY No 26¢ $62 2h
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY No 26¢ $2 2h
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY No 26¢ $11 2h
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY No 26¢ $35 2h
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY No 26¢ $2 2h
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY No 26¢ $4 2h
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY No 26¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71,466.96 · official $71,456.24 (match) · 3500 history records