Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A8 0xa8b8…36dd sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$445 (-10%) realized −$465 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$364
7 days−$408
14 days−$408
30 days−$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$338
other 44% −$49
culture 1% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-53.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -28.7% -35.5% 50% 50% -19.6%
≤30d 10 -28.7% -35.5% 50% 50% -19.6%
≤90d 10 -28.7% -35.5% 50% 50% -19.6%
all 14 -49.1% -53.9% 36% 36% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.9% 36% -20.7%
10% -58.3% 36% -28.3%
15% -62.4% 14% -35.2%
20% -66.0% 7% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$140 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$630
Realized−$465
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage481d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 68¢ $510 $615 +$105 (+21%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 28¢ $100 $15 −$85 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $705 +$204 +29%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $496 +$136 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $446 −$442 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $857 +$341 +40%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $403 +$110 +27%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $713 −$713 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$19 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 +$9 +90%
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Original Score at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $630.05 · official $630.09 (match) · 23 history records