Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:41:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A8 0xa8b9…e991 politics 7 markets active 577d ago coverage 200d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$56,028 (+124%) realized +$56,028 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +158% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +111% what you keep after slip
Net edge+111%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$6,457per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% +$56,028
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+133.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 7 +158.2% +133.6% 43% 43% +102.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +133.6% 43% +102.6%
10% ← realistic here +111.2% 43% +83.2%
15% +90.8% 43% +65.5%
20% +72.1% 29% +49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +158% · $-wt +124% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25,147 vs −$4,854 · ×5.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.89 per $1 lost it wins $3.89
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56,028
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage200d
Avg bet$6,457
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Jan 25 $9,257 +$4,356 +47%
Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day? Nov 17 $1,339 −$1,339 -100%
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee? Nov 17 $4,006 −$4,006 -100%
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? Nov 17 $15,559 −$12,338 -79%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 17 $6,783 +$3,608 +53%
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 04 $3,222 −$1,732 -54%
Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 16 $5,036 +$67,478 +1340%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? BUY Yes 68¢ $9,257 576d
Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day? BUY No 3¢ $1,263 608d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY No 59¢ $5,292 608d
Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day? BUY No 3¢ $70 611d
Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day? BUY No 3¢ $1 611d
Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day? BUY No 3¢ $5 611d
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee? BUY Yes 3¢ $1,152 612d
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,465 612d
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? BUY Yes 6¢ $5,935 671d
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? BUY Yes 6¢ $65 671d
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? BUY Yes 6¢ $151 671d
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,950 671d
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? BUY Yes 6¢ $225 671d
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,741 671d
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,389 677d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL No 51¢ $1,390 677d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY No 54¢ $1,491 679d
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? SELL Yes 5¢ $1,491 681d
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,119 685d
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 685d
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? BUY Yes 11¢ $510 685d
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? BUY Yes 11¢ $88 685d
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 685d
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,003 685d
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? BUY Yes 10¢ $433 685d
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? SELL Yes 7¢ $1,835 685d
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? SELL Yes 7¢ $558 685d
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? SELL Yes 8¢ $530 685d
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 685d
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? SELL Yes 8¢ $297 685d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records