Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8ba…7c9e world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$2
other 15% +$3
politics 7% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.6% -10.0% 31% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 16 -0.6% -10.0% 31% 0% -10.0%
all 31 +0.4% -9.1% 42% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage403d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $40 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $59 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $32 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $92 −$3 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $3 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 21 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $101K on May 23? May 21 $1 $0 -22%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $2 +$4 +182%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $31 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $31 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $28 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $25 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $28 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $28 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $28 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $29 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $11 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $32 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $32 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $9 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 31¢ $12 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $22 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.68 · official $28.68 (match) · 101 history records