Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:02:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8bc…2eab crypto 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 427d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$806 (+8%) realized +$806 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%39W / 69L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% +$599
crypto 16% −$318
other 7% +$448
culture 5% +$25
tech 1% −$12
sports 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -5.7% -14.7% 40% 40% -20.5%
≤30d 7 -15.5% -23.5% 43% 43% -26.3%
≤90d 7 -15.5% -23.5% 43% 43% -26.3%
all 108 -13.4% -21.6% 36% 31% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 31% -2.6%
10% -29.1% 27% -11.9%
15% -36.0% 20% -20.4%
20% -42.2% 13% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$24 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

427d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$806
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses39 / 69
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage427d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 01 $150 −$50 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 01 $100 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 01 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 01 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 01 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 01 $25 −$6 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 28 $70 −$47 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 28 $61 +$16 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 28 $51 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$9 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 28 $22 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 28 $17 +$17 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 28 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 28 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 28 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 28 $42 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Feb 28 $20 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 28 $100 +$67 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 28 $40 −$21 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Feb 28 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 28 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 21 $38 −$28 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 21 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 21 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 21 $50 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 21 $10 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 21 $30 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 21 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 19 $30 +$21 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 19 $23 −$16 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 19 $5 +$3 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $50 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $117 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $100 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $119 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $100 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $25 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $40 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $30 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $19 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $25 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $8 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $14 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 828 history records