Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8bd…8e96 crypto 1166 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,030 (-4%) realized −$4,030 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate67%779W / 381L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days−$71
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$4,849
sports 0% −$7
other 0% +$4
finance 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -3.1% -12.3% 55% 48% -6.1%
≤30d 120 -14.6% -22.7% 56% 44% -17.5%
≤90d 437 -9.9% -18.5% 64% 45% -19.4%
all 1160 -7.2% -16.0% 67% 48% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 48% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 31% -21.6%
15% -31.4% 19% -29.2%
20% -38.1% 11% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$57 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$4,030
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses779 / 381
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1160 / 1166
History coverage113d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 210 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$7 -72%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $30 −$14 -46%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$56 +55%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$17 +165%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$29 +57%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 +$51 +101%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $51 +$40 +78%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$64 -63%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $30 +$27 +89%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $20 +$27 +134%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $30 +$11 +36%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $8 +$7 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$7 +130%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$17 -56%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$19 +37%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +43%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$17 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$3 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $81 −$81 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $24 +$18 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$12 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 93¢ $157 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $27 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 6h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $51 6h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $51 6h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND France BUY 22¢ $20 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 23h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $90 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL 22¢ $37 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.07 · official $2.07 (match) · 2657 history records