Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A8 0xa8bd…5202 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,542 (+57%) realized +$3,642 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$622per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$2,724
other 3% +$220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.2% -3.0% 56% 56% +46.1%
≤30d 9 +7.2% -3.0% 56% 56% +46.1%
≤90d 9 +7.2% -3.0% 56% 56% +46.1%
all 9 +7.2% -3.0% 56% 56% +46.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 56% +46.1%
10% -12.3% 56% +32.1%
15% -20.8% 56% +19.3%
20% -28.5% 56% +7.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$734 vs −$157 · ×4.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.86 per $1 lost it wins $5.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,642
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$622
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Under 12¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann Jun 24 $1,244 −$80 -6%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $301 −$297 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $404 +$546 +135%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $152 −$150 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $415 +$236 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$220 +110%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $2,128 +$1,686 +79%
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jun 22 $1,176 +$981 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $103 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 13¢ $82 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann SELL Bianca Andreescu 87¢ $1,581 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann BUY Bianca Andreescu 63¢ $1,162 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Qinwen Zheng 55¢ $301 18h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $101 27h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Luciano Darderi 98¢ $950 27h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 41¢ $404 29h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 57¢ $152 32h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $415 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $419 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $200 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens SELL Elise Mertens 100¢ $3,814 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 55¢ $2,128 2d
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) SELL Ostapenko 100¢ $2,158 2d
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) BUY Ostapenko 54¢ $1,176 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.42 (match) · 17 history records