Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A8 0xa8bf…01a4 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +97% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$9
14 days+$15
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$3
other 23% +$11
sports 16% +$17
politics 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+78.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.2% -7.5% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 33 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 38 -0.7% -10.2% 26% 0% -9.5%
all 41 +96.9% +78.1% 29% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +78.1% 5% -9.5%
10% +61.1% 5% -18.1%
15% +45.5% 5% -26.1%
20% +31.2% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +97% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +197% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage117d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $209 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $174 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $175 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $90 +$6 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $171 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $14 +$1 +10%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $165 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $61 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $312 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $15 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $166 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $148 +$3 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $263 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $49 +$3 +6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $145 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1,341 −$1 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $146 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $469 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $279 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $146 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $205 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $269 −$4 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $157 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $164 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $9 −$3 -27%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $428 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1,190 +$2 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $242 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $205 −$3 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $8 −$1 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $27 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $956 −$1 -0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $23 −$3 -15%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $1,960 +$17 +1%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Feb 28 $542 +$9 +2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $978 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $13 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $129 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $175 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $174 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $174 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $9 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $166 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $175 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 61¢ $96 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 57¢ $90 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $51 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $64 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $144 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $8 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $36 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $34 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 4¢ $7 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 4¢ $7 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 4¢ $14 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $23 6d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $143 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records