Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8c0…19bd other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$676 (+6%) realized +$683 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%29W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$519
7 days+$518
14 days+$363
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$869
sports 7% −$256
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +15.2% +4.2% 65% 65% +2.1%
≤30d 26 +0.9% -8.7% 58% 58% -12.2%
≤90d 48 +5.4% -4.6% 60% 58% -3.9%
all 48 +5.4% -4.6% 60% 58% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 58% -3.9%
10% -13.8% 52% -13.1%
15% -22.1% 52% -21.5%
20% -29.7% 33% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$181 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$603
Realized+$683
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses29 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 52
History coverage63d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $208 $206 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $144 $142 −$2 (-1%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $108 $106 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 27 $290 +$132 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $231 +$169 +73%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $169 +$217 +129%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 25 $227 +$173 +76%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 24 $173 −$170 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $173 −$171 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $180 +$98 +55%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $181 −$178 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $167 +$83 +50%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $283 +$123 +44%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $162 −$160 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $334 −$330 -99%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $108 +$204 +188%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $117 +$139 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $111 +$51 +46%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $112 +$104 +93%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $330 +$118 +36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $156 −$155 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $142 −$140 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $418 +$209 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $197 +$122 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $286 +$163 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $294 −$290 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $230 −$225 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $572 +$543 +95%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $331 −$329 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $274 +$30 +11%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 18 $434 +$166 +38%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $449 +$252 +56%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 10 $157 −$155 -98%
Aston Villa FC leading at halftime? May 10 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $197 −$195 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $52 −$51 -98%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 05 $101 +$120 +120%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $252 +$115 +46%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 02 $220 +$201 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 02 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 02 $8 +$15 +198%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw? May 01 $241 +$26 +11%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Apr 30 $140 +$308 +220%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $188 −$185 -98%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $76 +$9 +12%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Apr 26 $194 +$18 +9%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $180 −$179 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $284 +$113 +40%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Apr 25 $26 +$23 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $147 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $152 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $110 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $211 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $290 14h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $169 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $231 17h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $173 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $173 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $227 3d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $181 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $180 3d
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $162 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $167 4d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $334 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $283 4d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $108 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $117 5d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $112 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $111 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $156 6d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $142 6d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $330 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $418 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $197 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $153 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $286 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $294 9d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 52¢ $304 27d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $112 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.45 · official $603.45 (match) · 111 history records