Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8c0…32d2 crypto 24 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day74.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$39
politics 15% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -10.9% -19.4% 59% 27% -13.7%
≤30d 24 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 33% -12.1%
≤90d 24 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 33% -12.1%
all 24 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 33% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 33% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 21% -20.5%
15% -30.7% 12% -28.2%
20% -37.5% 4% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day74.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $77 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $76 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $102 −$18 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $77 +$13 +16%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $17 $0 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $26 +$13 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $32 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $39 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $28 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records