Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8c5…cacb crypto 411 markets active 23h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$193 (-5%) realized −$199 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%177W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day34.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$9
14 days−$99
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$413
sports 30% +$170
other 20% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +14.4% +3.5% 52% 52% -16.0%
≤30d 298 -14.5% -22.6% 45% 44% -13.1%
≤90d 406 -19.3% -27.0% 44% 42% -19.1%
all 406 -19.3% -27.0% 44% 42% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 42% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 39% -26.8%
15% -40.3% 34% -33.9%
20% -46.2% 26% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses177 / 229
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions5
Markets (closed)406 / 411
History coverage52d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day34.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $248 $273 +$24 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $69 $54 −$16 (-23%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-14%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$3 +307%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$2 +101%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +94%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +58%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +80%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 +$6 +91%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$7 +163%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $114 −$2 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $32 +$9 +30%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$6 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$6 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 23h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 23h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 23h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 23h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $1 24h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $2 24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 40h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 40h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 40h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 40h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 40h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 40h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 40h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 40h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 40h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 40h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 40h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 40h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 40h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $1 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.94 · official $411.94 (match) · 1936 history records