Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa8c6…44e8
world · 109 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$25,896 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,355 · open +$7,346
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$239,114
Realized+$3,355
Unrealized+$7,346
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses29 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions204
Markets (closed)56 / 109
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4,504
Trades / day437.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 204 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,123
7 days+$3,355
14 days+$3,355
30 days+$3,355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 91¢ $14,275 $14,433 +$158 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 81¢ $8,902 $9,062 +$160 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 85¢ 90¢ $8,363 $8,817 +$454 (+5%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 87¢ 95¢ $6,253 $6,771 +$518 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $6,815 $6,539 −$276 (-4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 76¢ $5,130 $6,527 +$1,397 (+27%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $5,282 $5,699 +$417 (+8%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $5,533 $5,648 +$115 (+2%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $5,080 $5,193 +$113 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5,273 $5,152 −$121 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $4,930 $4,927 −$2 (-0%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 82¢ 94¢ $4,198 $4,828 +$630 (+15%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $4,295 $4,525 +$230 (+5%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 87¢ 97¢ $3,923 $4,393 +$470 (+12%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 60¢ 74¢ $3,330 $4,100 +$770 (+23%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 71¢ 63¢ $4,572 $4,071 −$501 (-11%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $3,371 $3,564 +$193 (+6%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 65¢ 64¢ $3,356 $3,343 −$13 (-0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,263 $3,297 +$34 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $3,064 $3,198 +$134 (+4%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 79¢ 80¢ $3,016 $3,054 +$38 (+1%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $2,762 $2,933 +$172 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $2,760 $2,835 +$75 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 69¢ 78¢ $2,509 $2,806 +$296 (+12%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $2,760 $2,775 +$15 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Holocaust" during the Hanukkah Reception eve Jun 12 $19 −$13 -69%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "ISIS" at Rocky Mount events on Friday? Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? Jun 12 $42 +$900 +2124%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during trophy presentation? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 20, 202 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Cuba" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Lisa Su be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? Jun 12 $0 $0 -50%
Will Dara Khosrowshahi be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Lei Jun be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31? Jun 12 $43 −$32 -75%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last less than 2 seconds? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7? Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Wisconsin judge convicted for obstructing immigration operation? Jun 12 $17 −$13 -80%
Will Trump say "Hindu" or "Hinduism" during Diwali Celebration events Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $23,382 −$95 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $3,121 +$77 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $12,119 +$379 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $3,626 +$15 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $7,071 +$246 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10,940 +$163 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1,489 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1,481 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $483 +$9 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $988 +$3 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $935 +$5 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 12 $590 +$50 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $6,462 +$79 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $2,632 −$130 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $8,691 +$1,110 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $1,781 +$122 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $314 +$43 +14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $3,491 −$281 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,660 +$130 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $168 +$33 +20%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $4,817 −$1,054 -22%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $496 +$2 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $217 −$44 -20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1,872 +$87 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $4,635 +$395 +8%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $1,453 +$47 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $1,788 +$88 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $666 −$19 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $196 +$1,744 +889%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $4,985 +$15 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $1,916 +$314 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% +$6,143
politics 20% −$1,339
other 20% +$4,786
tech 9% +$655
finance 0% +$13
crypto 0% +$92
economics 0% +$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 59¢ $295 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 67¢ $456 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 60¢ $300 1m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 88¢ $55 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 67¢ $22 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 64¢ $213 2m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 87¢ $455 3m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 86¢ $337 3m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 85¢ $250 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $78 4m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $502 5m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 83¢ $168 5m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $134 6m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 82¢ $129 6m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 64¢ $13 6m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 82¢ $16 6m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 64¢ $100 6m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 6m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 64¢ $7 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $20 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $9 7m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 66¢ $238 7m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 82¢ $246 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $747 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $627 7m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 7m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 64¢ $19 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $640 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +23.3% +11.5% 52% 14% -7.3%
≤30d 56 +23.3% +11.5% 52% 14% -7.3%
≤90d 56 +23.3% +11.5% 52% 14% -7.3%
all 56 +23.3% +11.5% 52% 14% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover437.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.5% 14% -7.3%
10% +0.9% 5% -16.1%
15% ← realistic here -8.9% 5% -24.2%
20% -17.8% 4% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239,113.87 · official $239,115.10 (match) · 3500 history records