Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa8c8…b823
weather · 1240 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$42 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$43 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$723
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1084 / 110
Open positions46
Markets (closed)1194 / 1240
History coverage147d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 46 History 1194 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$180
14 days−$84
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? No 98¢ 96¢ $55 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 96¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 88°F or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 69°F or below on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 96¢ 94¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 92¢ 80¢ $20 $18 −$3 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? No 98¢ 91¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? No 87¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $54 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -67%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$3 -17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 10? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 92% +$165
crypto 4% −$36
finance 2% −$104
other 1% −$43
politics 1% −$5
world 0% −$17
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 50m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will London have 80mm or more of precipitation in June? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $19 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY No 98¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $30 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $30 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 -3.0% -12.2% 89% 15% -14.8%
≤30d 504 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 13% -8.7%
≤90d 1137 -1.1% -10.5% 92% 10% -9.1%
all 1194 -1.5% -10.8% 91% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 10% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $723.28 · official $722.71 (match) · 3221 history records