Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8ca…d535 sports 270 markets active 7h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,085 (+1%) realized +$12,085 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate66%176W / 91L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,649per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1,351est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24,661
7 days−$461
14 days+$2,070
30 days−$9,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$13,211
other 36% −$3,438
politics 3% +$24,482
economics 3% +$2,377
world 1% −$1,324
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -8.5% -17.2% 62% 38% -9.9%
≤30d 21 -20.0% -27.6% 52% 38% -13.1%
≤90d 89 +3.0% -6.8% 65% 51% -10.0%
all 267 -1.0% -10.4% 66% 52% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 52% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 39% -17.7%
15% -26.8% 29% -25.7%
20% -34.0% 19% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$7,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,017 vs −$3,804 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12,085
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses176 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$1,351
Open positions0
Markets (closed)267 / 270
History coverage602d
Avg bet$7,649
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 267 Trades
no open positions (61 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35,095 +$24,661 +70%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10,252 +$73 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14,921 −$14,885 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15,085 −$12,419 -82%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1,473 +$379 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20,033 +$1,134 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5,052 +$2,640 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,061 −$2,044 -40%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,002 +$51 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $15,103 +$4,357 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3,035 +$1,883 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5,054 −$2,759 -55%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $8,029 −$8,000 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $2,041 −$2,000 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Alexander Zverev May 27 $5,319 +$704 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $507 −$212 -42%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5,045 +$2,098 +42%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,030 +$1,970 +97%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 19 $6,135 −$4,121 -67%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,023 −$2,000 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $40,120 +$4,324 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $5,021 +$793 +16%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $25,120 +$4,642 +18%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $15,036 −$172 -1%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $3,547 −$3,500 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $40,222 −$40,000 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,013 −$626 -62%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $17,143 +$6,468 +38%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $5,058 +$3,139 +62%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $1,013 +$773 +76%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $205 +$906 +442%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $5,078 +$5,339 +105%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $5,027 +$1,043 +21%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $4,849 −$4,800 -99%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev May 03 $8,038 +$1,485 +18%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $340 +$249 +73%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $3,534 +$1,668 +47%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $303 −$300 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 01 $5,031 −$5,000 -99%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $2,017 +$797 +40%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $5,021 +$793 +16%
Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Apr 30 $757 +$300 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 30 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 30 $25 +$3 +10%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $6,964 +$1,036 +15%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Apr 29 $500 −$88 -18%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $500 +$413 +83%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Apr 27 $850 +$150 +18%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina Apr 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $35,095 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $5,079 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 44¢ $2,033 36h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $10,325 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $14,921 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10,252 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 20¢ $1,739 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 10¢ $928 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 77¢ $467 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $1,006 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20,033 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $5,052 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $5,028 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 36¢ $3,017 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5,061 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $10,057 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 39¢ $1,018 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1,013 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 97¢ $2,002 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 100¢ $19,460 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 77¢ $15,103 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 61¢ $3,035 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 30¢ $2,295 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $5,054 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 89¢ $5,016 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 86¢ $3,013 15d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,021 20d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,021 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 88¢ $5,319 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic SELL Joao Fonseca 31¢ $295 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 675 history records