Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:04:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8cb…581e crypto 205 markets active 1d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-8%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%107W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$44
14 days−$101
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$50
sports 30% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 -3.0% -12.2% 52% 36% -16.0%
≤30d 205 -4.1% -13.2% 52% 38% -18.8%
≤90d 205 -4.1% -13.2% 52% 38% -18.8%
all 205 -4.1% -13.2% 52% 38% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 38% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 27% -26.5%
15% -29.1% 16% -33.6%
20% -36.0% 7% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses107 / 98
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)205 / 205
History coverage16d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 205 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 540 history records