Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A8 0xa8cd…0d51 weather 672 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$368 (-3%) realized −$364 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate33%218W / 445L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$2,769
other 4% −$495
politics 2% −$317
sports 2% −$246
culture 1% −$111
tech 1% −$49
world 0% −$30
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-55.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -1.2% -10.6% 98% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 342 -36.6% -42.6% 49% 12% -23.6%
≤90d 663 -50.2% -55.0% 33% 11% -35.5%
all 663 -50.2% -55.0% 33% 11% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.0% 11% -35.5%
10% ← realistic here -59.3% 8% -41.6%
15% -63.2% 7% -47.3%
20% -66.8% 6% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$364
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses218 / 445
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)663 / 672
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 663 Trades
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 20? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 18 $64 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June Jun 18 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? Jun 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $197 $0 +0%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $271 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $76 +$6 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $17 10m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $170 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $36 33h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $165 33h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $20 33h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $9 33h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $7 33h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $1 34h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $10 34h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $2 34h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $3 34h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $12 34h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $200 34h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $64 34h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $32 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 45h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.93 · official $69.42 (match) · 3500 history records