Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8cf…6b0b crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 569d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$963 (-8%) realized −$13 · open −$950
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%26W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$186
14 days+$186
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$245
other 26% +$263
world 13% −$611
politics 9% −$953
culture 3% −$50
economics 3% +$216
sports 2% +$29
tech 2% +$373
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +173.9% +147.8% 100% 100% +147.8%
≤30d 1 +173.9% +147.8% 100% 100% +147.8%
≤90d 2 +111.5% +91.3% 100% 100% +54.8%
all 48 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 52% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 52% -9.7%
10% -10.8% 48% -18.4%
15% -19.4% 46% -26.3%
20% -27.3% 35% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% too few recent
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$241 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

569d coverage
Net worth$566
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$950
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses26 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)48 / 54
History coverage569d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $288 $284 −$4 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $633 $75 −$558 (-88%)
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 6¢ $275 $54 −$221 (-80%)
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? Yes 42¢ 18¢ $120 $51 −$69 (-58%)
Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $100 $3 −$97 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 24 $107 +$186 +174%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 07 $500 +$246 +49%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Mar 23 $200 +$54 +27%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Mar 23 $150 +$109 +72%
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" this week? (February 1) Jan 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January? Jan 15 $200 +$255 +127%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 04 $620 −$620 -100%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? Jan 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Jan 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jan 04 $200 +$44 +22%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 04 $200 +$373 +187%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Jan 04 $65 +$75 +115%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Dec 31 $200 +$150 +75%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Dec 29 $300 −$300 -100%
US recession in 2025? Dec 29 $250 +$316 +127%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Ethereum above $2,700 on May 23? Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on May 27? Jun 14 $105 +$204 +194%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 22? Jun 14 $100 +$400 +400%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 19? May 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum above $2,500 on May 16? May 18 $100 +$92 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 13? May 14 $100 +$69 +70%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? May 12 $300 −$300 -100%
US-China trade deal before June? May 12 $390 +$863 +221%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? May 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 06 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? May 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Apr 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI? Apr 18 $100 +$47 +47%
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary? Apr 18 $100 +$51 +51%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24? Jan 24 $350 +$188 +54%
Bitcoin all time high by January 31? Jan 21 $137 +$215 +157%
Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV in 2024? Jan 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Dogecoin above $0.40 on December 20? Jan 02 $400 −$400 -100%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 02 $250 −$250 -100%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jan 02 $564 −$564 -100%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 02 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty? Jan 02 $100 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? Dec 14 $750 +$720 +96%
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? Dec 08 $353 +$220 +62%
Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night Dec 08 $150 +$30 +20%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? Dec 06 $200 +$98 +49%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 06 $474 +$230 +49%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Dec 02 $95 −$39 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $102 5m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $90 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $154 1h
Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 43d
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 43d
Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 43d
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 16¢ $86 43d
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 43d
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 19¢ $103 44d
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 44d
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 29¢ $103 48d
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 27¢ $103 48d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $746 48d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 67¢ $500 92d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? BUY Yes 37¢ $107 148d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 58¢ $150 148d
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" this week? (February 1) BUY Yes 72¢ $200 148d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $420 171d
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 171d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $200 171d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $200 171d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 171d
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $65 174d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 174d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 174d
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 174d
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 SELL Yes 100¢ $350 174d
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $175 176d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 176d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.68 · official $565.68 (match) · 141 history records