Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa8cf…0351
crypto · 304 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
−$481 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$698 · open −$1,132
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,068
Realized+$698
Unrealized−$1,132
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses253 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)302 / 304
History coverage96d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 2 History 302 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$102
14 days+$105
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 82¢ 40¢ $2,138 $1,024 −$1,114 (-52%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 83¢ 58¢ $62 $44 −$18 (-30%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? No 92¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Under 80¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $45 +$17 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $35 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $182 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $129 +$17 +13%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $1,001 +$13 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $996 +$44 +4%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $19 −$1 -7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Norway vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $111 +$25 +23%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $109 +$5 +4%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $100 +$7 +7%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $200 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 01 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 01 $200 +$6 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $443 +$49 +11%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,700 +$45 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 +$1 +72%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $264 +$20 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $8 +$2 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,588 +$23 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $957 +$42 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $408 +$42 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,000 +$52 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 18 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 18 $13 −$10 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 18 $20 −$11 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 18 $20 −$17 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 18 $135 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 18 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 18 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 18 $101 +$8 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $1,785 +$18 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $284 −$102 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 3.5 May 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 13 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $1,033 +$129 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $1,703 +$49 +3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $420 +$79 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? May 01 $763 +$107 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 01 $1,228 +$316 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% +$404
world 12% −$759
finance 7% −$300
other 6% +$212
sports 1% +$18
culture 0% −$10
economics 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $62 8m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $63 10m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $45 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $35 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 36¢ $36 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $188 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $92 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $92 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $204 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $146 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $999 3d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,014 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $182 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $810 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $19 9d
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $17 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $362 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $377 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 9d
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $40 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $129 9d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,001 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $190 11d
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.1% -11.4% 86% 43% -5.7%
≤30d 42 -9.2% -17.9% 76% 26% -7.5%
≤90d 298 +1.4% -8.3% 84% 28% -8.8%
all 302 +1.9% -7.8% 84% 28% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 28% -8.8%
10% -16.6% 14% -17.5%
15% -24.7% 8% -25.5%
20% -32.1% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,067.51 · official $1,067.51 (match) · 866 history records