Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A8 0xa8d0…ca74 crypto 503 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$644 (+2%) realized +$644 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%486W / 17L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days+$74
14 days+$206
30 days+$637
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$648
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +1.6% -8.1% 98% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 187 +3.5% -6.4% 99% 4% -6.4%
≤90d 503 +1.3% -8.4% 97% 4% -7.9%
all 503 +1.3% -8.4% 97% 4% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 4% -7.9%
10% -17.2% 0% -16.8%
15% -25.2% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$58 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$644
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses486 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)503 / 503
History coverage90d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 503 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$10 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $23 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $38 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $94 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $100 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $65 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $87 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1337 history records